Digital reflection model.
This is a scenario calculator, not a yield quote. Its inputs are a reporting window, the USD trading volumes you include, assumed fee collection, eligible pack-equivalent holdings and an assumed APE price.
Observed daily pace = included volume ÷ observed days
Forward daily pace = observed daily pace × future pace percentage
30-day pool = forward daily pace × 30 × reflection rate × fee capture
Your 30-day reward = 30-day pool × your holdings ÷ eligible supply
Modeled APE = modeled USD reward ÷ assumed APE price
Rates are entered as percentages and converted to fractions. The 2.5% starting reflection rate follows the official description; 100% net reflection capture is an illustrative assumption. Eligible supply starts unknown: leaving it blank compares 25,000, 50,000, 100,000 and 240,000 pack totals that are at least as large as your holdings. These are selected scenarios, not an estimated range of actual supply or a confidence interval. Net capture is the share of the stated reflection that ultimately reaches holders, allowing for missing fees and distribution/conversion costs; it is not an audited rate. Opened cards can contribute trading volume without being counted as holdings.
Purchase cost = eligible packs × all-in cost per digital pack. Leave cost blank when unknown: reward estimates still calculate, while yield stays unavailable. Entering zero means a known zero basis, not missing data. Simple annualized yield = forward daily reward × 365 ÷ purchase cost. This is not APY, includes no compounding, and excludes taxes, trading friction and changes in pack value.
Mechanism description: Official Mudwater overview (opens in a new tab). Actual collection, distribution and weighting have not been audited here.
Dates and partial days.
Both collections must use the same currency, interval and reporting timezone. For this-month or since-a-date inputs, choose the reporting date and the data cut-off: end of day, noon, start of day or a specific New York time. For rolling windows, calendar settings are optional and do not change the length of the rolling window.
Remaining days = days in month − reporting day + 1 − day completeness
Calendar-month volume = actual MTD volume + forward daily pace × remaining days
Completeness is expressed as a fraction: 50% becomes 0.5. For example, October 23 at the end of the day with October 17 as the first included day is seven observed calendar-day equivalents. At halfway through October 23, it is 6.5. A launch late on October 17 requires its actual start time: use “Since a date / launch” and edit the first trading date and start time.
For rolling 24-hour, 7-day or 30-day inputs, the denominator is 1, 7 or 30. The since-a-date window subtracts the start date/time from the selected cut-off. These are civil-day equivalents, not a timezone-aware elapsed-hours ledger across daylight-saving changes. Imported custom windows can use exact fractional days. Rolling volume does not reveal actual month-to-date volume. Without that additional input, the tool shows remaining-month and forward-30-day rewards but does not fabricate a full calendar-month total. The whole-month reward equivalent is not an earned or claimable balance: it applies the current assumed share across the entire observed and projected month, without verifying past holdings. Forward estimates begin at the selected cut-off; purchasing packs today does not create retroactive reward rights.
Day counts use the selected calendar date, including leap years. The “today” shortcut uses America/New_York. The “current NY date & time” shortcut sets the reporting date and day completeness together, but never changes volume. Use it only when your entered data are current to the same cut-off.
Long-term accumulation and sensitivity.
Each accumulation period is 30 days. The 12-, 24- and 36-period results therefore cover 360, 720 and 1,080 modeled days—not exact calendar years. APE price and your holdings stay constant. No automatic reinvestment is modeled.
Eligible supply in period m = initial supply × (1 + supply change)^(m − 1)
Supply is bounded by your holdings and the stated 240,000-pack maximum.
Cumulative reward = sum of modeled rewards for each period
The optional trend inputs affect this accumulation model only. No forecast of future APE prices, pack resale values, taxes, reinvestment or cash-flow timing is made. They do not revise historical volume or the 365-day simple annualized yield, which is explicitly a fixed-pace comparison. Supply shrinking toward your own holding balance is an extreme scenario, not a prediction.
The comparison table shows USD and APE rewards for illustrative eligible totals at the selected forward pace. To stress-test activity, change “Future activity vs. observed (%)” and recalculate. Equal per-pack weighting is a modeling assumption pending verification of the actual mechanism.
Physical-box resale model.
Total purchase basis = lot price + acquisition costs
Net proceeds = boxes × [sale price per box × (1 − fee rate) − shipping − other costs]
Profit / loss = net proceeds − total purchase basis
Break-even per box = [purchase basis ÷ boxes + shipping + other costs] ÷ (1 − fee rate)
At the selectable example of $2,200 for three boxes, 13% resale fees and $30 shipping per box, break-even is approximately $877.39 per box. The calculator’s resale-price rows are hypothetical, not completed-sale comparables.
Physical-only boxes receive zero modeled APE income. The tool does not assert that a future physical-to-digital feature creates present-day reward rights. No resale, valuation or liquidity is guaranteed.
Evidence labels.
| Label | What it means |
|---|---|
| Documented | Described in an identified primary source. Not necessarily operationally audited. |
| Dated snapshot | Retrieved marketplace display tied to a review date; not a continuous feed. |
| Derived | Arithmetic based on disclosed inputs, such as design shares. |
| Assumption / model | Editable scenario input or output, not an observed result. |
| Not verified | Insufficient evidence for a publishable figure. Not equivalent to zero. |
Primary source register.
These are direct references, not claims that this independent site is official. Review dates describe this release; source pages can change.
- Official Mudwater overview (opens in a new tab)Supply, packaging, reflection description and announced features. Reviewed 2026-10-23.
- Official Swamp Origins checklist (opens in a new tab)Design counts by rarity, family and finish category. Reviewed 2026-10-23.
- Official claim page (opens in a new tab)BAYC/MAYC allocations and the stated claim deadline. Reviewed 2026-10-23.
- Official game rules (opens in a new tab)Rarity levels, families and gameplay terminology. Reviewed 2026-10-23.
- OpenSea · Mudwater Packs (opens in a new tab)Dated digital-pack market snapshot. Displayed offers are not audited bids. Reviewed 2026-10-23.
- OpenSea · Mudwater Cards (opens in a new tab)Dated individual-card market snapshot; not physical-box comps. Reviewed 2026-10-23.
- OpenSea · Mudwater Totems (opens in a new tab)Separate Ethereum collection. Claim context is not a reward entitlement. Reviewed 2026-10-23.
- OpenSea referral program terms (opens in a new tab)Eligible token swaps, disclosure obligations and exclusion of NFT trades. Reviewed 2026-10-23.