Rarity tiers: count designs, not outcomes.
The official checklist contains 120 distinct designs. The percentages below are arithmetic shares of that checklist; they are not the share of printed cards, remaining supply or the chance of a pull.
| Tier | Designs | Design share | Pack pull probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common | 55 | 45.83% | Not established by design count |
| Uncommon | 30 | 25.00% | Not established by design count |
| Rare | 13 | 10.83% | Not established by design count |
| Prestige | 14 | 11.67% | Not established by design count |
| Legendary | 8 | 6.67% | Not established by design count |
Counts: Official Swamp Origins checklist (opens in a new tab). Share = designs in tier ÷ 120 × 100. Rounding can affect totals.
Design, rarity and finish are different axes.
Finish illustrations are conceptual, not product photography or exact print samples.
Base, Foil and Serialized each have 120 entries in the official finish filter: 360 design/finish combinations altogether. Each category is one-third of the listed combinations, not necessarily one-third of the print run.
| Finish | Design coverage | Published pull rate verified here? |
|---|---|---|
| Base | 120 designs | No |
| Foil | 120 designs | No |
| Serialized | 120 designs | No |
Finish categories: Official Swamp Origins checklist (opens in a new tab). For actual artwork, use the official checklist; this site’s small finish graphics are illustrative.
Read a serial number without inventing odds.
A serial written as 7/25 identifies copy 7 in a numbered run of 25. That copy represents 4% of that specific numbered run. It does not represent 4% of Swamp Origins, and it does not give a pack-opening probability.
The official overview advertises eight Cracked Ice 1/1 cards and a stated total of 2.4 million cards. Dividing 8 by 2,400,000 gives approximately 0.00033333% of the stated card supply. This is a count ratio only: allocation, distribution, already-opened cards and serialized-pack awards can make it unsuitable as an opening-odds calculation.
Stated aggregate counts: Official Mudwater overview (opens in a new tab). Full serialized print-run tables and pack-level allocation probabilities were not verified for this release.
Four card families.
| Family | Designs | Design share |
|---|---|---|
| Club | 62 | 51.67% |
| Mutant | 22 | 18.33% |
| Cosmic | 16 | 13.33% |
| Arcana | 20 | 16.67% |
Family counts: Official Swamp Origins checklist (opens in a new tab). Gameplay context: Official game rules (opens in a new tab). Family shares also are not pull odds.
The packaging hierarchy.
The advertised maximum is 240,000 packs across 10,000 box equivalents. This maximum is not a live count of digital packs eligible for reflections. Physical allocation, unclaimed stock, opening activity and packaging changes must be reconciled before estimating eligibility.
Packaging and maximum supply: Official Mudwater overview (opens in a new tab). The 240-pack case figure is 24 × 10.
A collector’s short glossary.
- Floor price
- The lowest displayed qualifying asking price. It is not a guaranteed sale price for every item you own.
- Executable bid
- An offer your specific asset can actually fill, with sufficient funding, valid terms, quantity and expiry.
- Pack equivalent
- A modeling unit. The exact eligibility weights used by the reward mechanism still require independent verification.
- Print run
- The number of printed copies within a defined edition or variant. Different rarity designs can have different runs.
- Pull probability
- A probability over a defined pool and collation process—not a synonym for design share or scarcity.
- Fee capture
- The assumed fraction of included market volume that actually contributes the modeled reflection fee.